The notion that a "shortage" or "oversupply" can be simply calculated with tabulation of numbers and projections is a farce.
These are the facts:
1.) Academic centers WANT current or increased numbers of residents because it:
a.) reinforces the idea that respective institutions are competitive, relevant and important;
b.) it is cheaper to increase pathology training positions than hire PAs;
c.) decreasing resident spots is a sign to institutional GME offices that said pathology department is losing volume and hence revenue.
2.) Corporate labs WANT current or increased numbers of residents because it creates a cheaper labor force. This is purely economics; they care about the bottom line not the profession of pathologist physicians.
3.) The ability to find non-academic and non-corporate positions is increasingly hard for graduating residents, who in turn extend their training by increasing periods of time to make themselves more competitive.
4.) There is a MASSIVE disconnect regarding practice expectations, attitudes and perceptions when comparing academic to private pathology.
5.) Given the choice between an academic center paying "X" dollars, a corporate lab paying "X - 1.5X" dollars, or a private gig paying "2X - 3X" dollars, the overwhelming majority of applicants would choose the third option were it not for intense geographic restriction, underlying interest in academic pathology, or family/social reasons.
6.) The idea that retiring pathologists and new pathologists equals a 1:1 job ratio is a farce. Not all retiring pathologists occupy a full-time position, and the loss in revenue from decreasing reimbursements and corporate competition necessitates that not all positions would be filled in the first place.
7.) CMS rates go down every year; sometimes private rates go up, but overall revenue streams are tied to volume not value, and it is a constant battle to maintain revenue streams.
I don't see how a massive shortage can be foreseen unless being delusional, dishonest or both.